From training load, effort, sleep, HRV and resting heart rate, how you feel, nutrition and weight-loss pace.
Training load
watch
load ratio 1.37 (7-day vs 28-day; amber under 0.8 or over 1.3, red over 1.5); monotony 2.3 over the last 7 days (how alike the days were; amber over 2.0, red over 2.5)
Effort (RPE)
good
session RPE 8.2 over the last 7 days vs 7.7 before (amber +0.75 or a 9+ average, red +1.5)
Sleep
good
6.5 h asleep last night (amber under 6, red under 5); 6.2 h average over the last 3 nights vs 6.7 h usual (amber 45 min short, red 90)
HRV & resting HR
good
7-day HRV 46 vs 30-day 43 (+0.3 SD; amber at -1.0, red at -1.5); 7-day resting HR 61 vs 62 (amber +3, red +5)
How you feel
no data
nothing in your notes for today or yesterday
Nutrition
good
2,055 kcal/day over the last 3 complete days vs ~2,845 maintenance from your weight trend (amber 1,000 short, red 1,500); protein 183 g/day vs 158 g target (amber under 80%, red under 60%)
Weight-loss pace
good
losing 0.62% of body weight a week over 4 weeks (amber over 1%, red over 1.5%: recovery under strain)
The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day.
Today's session
Push B · Barbell Military Press
Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after legs on Mon 20 Jul.
Exercises from your last Push B (Mon 13 Jul); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.
Exercise
Today
Why
Last time
Barbell Military Press
120 × 5 at RPE 9
hold
top set 120 × 5 at RPE 10: make it cleaner first
120 × 5, 120 × 5, 120 × 5 · Mon 13 Jul
Dumbbell Bench Press
70 × 10
add a rep
top set 70 × 9 at RPE 9
70 × 10, 70 × 10, 70 × 9 · Mon 13 Jul
Cable Overhead Tricep Extension
65 × 10
add a rep
top set 65 × 9 at RPE 8.5
65 × 9, 65 × 9, 65 × 9 · Mon 13 Jul
Dumbbell Lateral Raise
30 × 14
add a rep
top set 30 × 13 at RPE 8.5
30 × 14, 30 × 14, 30 × 13 · Fri 17 Jul
One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.
Recovery
HRV 7-day
46 / 43
Resting HR
61
Sleep
6.5h
Load ratio
1.37
Days since rest
2 · rest Sun 19 Jul · 1 before today
Overnight HRV (ms)
Resting heart rate (bpm)
Sleep (hours asleep)
Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)
Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions:
push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.33 (0–3).
Training calendar
Training: lifting 5+ sets, or any workout but a walkRest-day movement: a walk, nothing elseRestSick or injured, from your notes or check-in
Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.
Body weight
197.2 lb14-day average · this morning 195.0 -1.72 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.87% of body weight)
Average this week vs last week
-1.7 lb
0.89%/wk
On pace
Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before
-4.9 lb (-1.23/wk)
0.62%/wk
On pace
Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml).
Loss is speeding up: this week is well over the 4-week pace.
A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.
Goal: 175 lb
19 Oct 2026 at the current pace —
22.2 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 197.2,
about 13 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.
14-day trendmorning weigh-in
Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks
Lift
e1RM
× body weight
Level
Next level at
At 175 lb
Squat
303 lb
1.54
Intermediate
383 lb
Intermediate
Bench press
228 lb
1.15
Intermediate
287 lb
Intermediate
Deadlift
368 lb
1.86
Intermediate
478 lb
Intermediate
Overhead press
140 lb
0.71
Novice
143 lb
Intermediate
Squat + bench + deadlift: 898 lb, DOTS 264 (282 at 175 lb with the same lifts).
Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 197 lb 14-day average by body weight2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters.
e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard.
DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.
Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete
Calories in
2,041
Deficit, logged
385
Deficit, measured
861
Protein / day
171 g / 158 target
kcal/day over 12 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake.
Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7).
They differ by 476 kcal/day.
Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 158 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 171 g, 108% of it.
For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.
Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days
Nutrient
Food
+ Supplements
Total
Of reference
Foods that close it
Vitamin E
8.8
–
8.8 mg
59%
sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado
Fiber
24
–
24 g
63%
beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables
Potassium
2,789
–
2,789 mg
82%
potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach
Close to an upper limit (50% or more)
Nutrient
Counted
Upper limit
Of limit
Note
Magnesium
200 mg
350 mg
57%
supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake
Vitamin D
2,197 IU
4,000 IU
55%
food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it.
Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50.
Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient.
Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml.
Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.
Predictions
Prediction
Resolves
So far
Target
Data logged
P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends
OLS over 0 weigh-ins, 2026-07-31 to 2026-07-21
Sun 27 Dec
159 days
no data yet
-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week
on track
weigh-ins: 0 of 111; longest gap 0 (max 7)
P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best
interim: 2026-05-30 to 2026-07-21 vs 2026-05-02 to 2026-05-29; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +3.3%, Military Press +4.3%, Squat +4.0%
Sun 27 Dec
159 days
+4.1 %
inside
not below -5.0 %
–
P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started
30-day mean to 2026-07-21 vs 2026-05-02 to 2026-05-29
Sun 27 Dec
159 days
43.6 ms (+1.8)
outside
more than 47.2 ms (baseline 41.7 + 1 SD 5.5)
on track
complete food logs: 44 of 169, 3 excused
Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.
Training load — 8 weeks
Exercise minutes (Apple, all activity)
Hard sets (RPE 7+, or every working set where no RPE was logged)