From training load, effort, sleep, HRV and resting heart rate, how you feel, nutrition and weight-loss pace.
Training load
good
load ratio 0.81 (7-day vs 28-day; amber under 0.8 or over 1.3, red over 1.5); monotony 1.4 over the last 7 days (how alike the days were; amber over 2.0, red over 2.5)
Effort (RPE)
good
session RPE 8.7 over the last 7 days vs 8.5 before (amber +0.75 or a 9+ average, red +1.5)
Sleep
good
7.3 h asleep last night (amber under 6, red under 5); 7.3 h average over the last 3 nights vs 6.6 h usual (amber 45 min short, red 90)
HRV & resting HR
good
7-day HRV 43 vs 30-day 45 (-0.2 SD; amber at -1.0, red at -1.5); 7-day resting HR 61 vs 60 (amber +3, red +5)
How you feel
good
energy 3/3 yesterday
Nutrition
good
1,893 kcal/day over the last 3 complete days vs ~2,844 maintenance from your weight trend (amber 1,000 short, red 1,500); protein 160 g/day vs 150 g target (amber under 80%, red under 60%)
Weight-loss pace
good
losing 0.63% of body weight a week over 4 weeks (amber over 1%, red over 1.5%: recovery under strain)
The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day.
Today's session
Legs A · Barbell Squat
Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after pull on Fri 18 Sep.
Exercises from your last Legs A (Wed 9 Sep); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.
Exercise
Today
Why
Last time
Barbell Squat
255 × 5 at RPE 9
hold
top set 255 × 5 at RPE 10: make it cleaner first
255 × 5, 255 × 4, 255 × 3 · Wed 9 Sep
Romanian Deadlift
220 × 8
add a rep
top set 220 × 7 at RPE 9
220 × 8, 220 × 8, 220 × 7 · Wed 9 Sep
Leg Press
390 × 9
add a rep
top set 390 × 8 at RPE 9
390 × 10, 390 × 9, 390 × 8 · Wed 9 Sep
Seated Leg Curl
130 × 7
add a rep
top set 130 × 6 at RPE 9
130 × 7, 130 × 7, 130 × 6 · Wed 9 Sep
Standing Calf Raise
225 × 11
add a rep
top set 225 × 10 at RPE 8.5
225 × 11, 225 × 11, 225 × 10 · Wed 9 Sep
One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.
Recovery
HRV 7-day
43 / 45
Resting HR
61
Sleep
7.3h
Load ratio
0.81
Days since rest
2 · rest Thu 17 Sep · 1 before today
From your notes, Fri 18 Sep:
energy 3/3 — “feeling good, appetite under control”
Overnight HRV (ms)
Resting heart rate (bpm)
Sleep (hours asleep)
Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)
Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions:
push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.33 (0–3).
Training calendar
Training: lifting 5+ sets, or any workout but a walkRest-day movement: a walk, nothing elseRestSick or injured, from your notes or check-in
Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.
Body weight
186.9 lb14-day average · this morning 186.4 -1.77 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.95% of body weight)
Average this week vs last week
-1.7 lb
0.91%/wk
On pace
Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before
-4.7 lb (-1.18/wk)
0.63%/wk
On pace
Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml).
Loss is speeding up: this week is well over the 4-week pace.
A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.
Goal: 175 lb
5 Nov 2026 at the current pace —
11.9 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 186.9,
about 7 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.
14-day trendmorning weigh-in
Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks
Lift
e1RM
× body weight
Level
Next level at
At 175 lb
Squat
298 lb
1.59
Intermediate
369 lb
Intermediate
Bench press
228 lb
1.22
Intermediate
277 lb
Intermediate
Deadlift
368 lb
1.97
Intermediate
461 lb
Intermediate
Overhead press
146 lb
0.78
Intermediate
185 lb
Intermediate
Squat + bench + deadlift: 892 lb, DOTS 270 (280 at 175 lb with the same lifts).
Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 187 lb 14-day average by body weight2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters.
e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard.
DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.
Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete
Calories in
1,954
Deficit, logged
409
Deficit, measured
886
Protein / day
167 g / 150 target
kcal/day over 10 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake.
Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7).
They differ by 477 kcal/day.
Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 150 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 167 g, 112% of it.
For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.
Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days
Nutrient
Food
+ Supplements
Total
Of reference
Foods that close it
Vitamin E
7.7
–
7.7 mg
52%
sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado
Fiber
26
–
26 g
69%
beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables
Potassium
2,630
–
2,630 mg
77%
potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach
Close to an upper limit (50% or more)
Nutrient
Counted
Upper limit
Of limit
Note
Magnesium
200 mg
350 mg
57%
supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake
Vitamin D
2,201 IU
4,000 IU
55%
food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it.
Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50.
Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient.
Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml.
Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.
Predictions
Prediction
Resolves
So far
Target
Data logged
P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends
OLS over 42 weigh-ins, 2026-07-31 to 2026-09-19
Sun 27 Dec
99 days
-1.37 lb/week
inside
-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week
on track
weigh-ins: 42 of 111, 1 excused; longest gap 1 (max 7)
P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best
interim: 2026-05-30 to 2026-09-19 vs 2026-05-02 to 2026-05-29; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +3.3%, Military Press +8.6%, Squat +4.0%
Sun 27 Dec
99 days
+4.7 %
inside
not below -5.0 %
–
P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started
30-day mean to 2026-09-19 vs 2026-05-02 to 2026-05-29
Sun 27 Dec
99 days
44.4 ms (+2.6)
outside
more than 47.2 ms (baseline 41.7 + 1 SD 5.5)
on track
complete food logs: 95 of 169, 8 excused
Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.
Training load — 8 weeks
Exercise minutes (Apple, all activity)
Hard sets (RPE 7+, or every working set where no RPE was logged)